With the present technology a solar cell efficiency of 25% it has been projected, based on a research from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, that by 2023 we will have an installation capacity of 1 Trillion Watts of Solar PV. These figures have been improving and are updated year by year. These capacities will be divided among US, Canada, Europe, China, Japan and India who will have 50% share from the total worldwide demands. There will be a great jump, where the sun is in abundance, in North Africa and the Middle East, many major installations are in their way in UAE and Morocco.
In research there were a lot of simulations that led to the assumption that the cost of kWh, based on large installation, will be 2 cents by 2022 will even drop to 1.4 even less in 2023. The study concluded:
“Bid prices will continue their downward march pretty much everywhere. More sub-2-cent PV bids are likely, both in leading low-cost markets and in emerging markets that are launching solicitations. By 2022, awarded prices as low as $14/MWh will be old news,”
All the research and simulation are based on existing technology and does not factor a breakthrough in technology that will lead to even better result.
The Australian Capital Canberra in the collaboration between the industry and academia invented an organic solar panel that can be printed using conventional printers.
“By using electronic inks that are printed onto sub-millimeter thin plastic sheets,
the cost to produce it is so low and to roll out another set of solar cells is going to be extremely easy. I think over time our current picture of how we view solar energy and cells is going to fundamentally change.”
These fundamental changes are coming through very fast. In another breakthrough scientist developed a more efficient method to harvest 85% of visible light of a photo-electrode using a 30 nanometers-thin semiconductor layer between gold layers that can harvest 85 percent of visible light that led 11 times more energy.
The research team led by Professor Hiroaki Misawa of the Research Institute for Electronic Science at Hokkaido University concluded. “Using very small amounts of material, this photo-electrode enables an efficient conversion of sunlight into renewable energy, further contributing to the realization of a sustainable society,”
Using this new research and the analysis that projected 1 Trillion Watts of Solar PV, from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, with a cost 1.4 cents per kWh we will expect that either we will be producing 11 Trillion Watts of Solar PV with a cost of less o.14 cents per kWh. This amount produced is equivalent to 3 to 4 times of America’s electricity consumption. This is giant leap without even considering that even more new technologies will be implemented by then.
The future really looks bright as the sun itself, and hopefully through the handwork of the scientist worldwide the pledge made in the Paris will be fulfilled.